Hi all,
Bulls fire only before Diwali -
Diwali, is an auspicious occasion for everyone, but markets have not followd it many times... It happened a couple of times earlier that the fireworks usually happen before Diwali and the Muhurat Trading day is actually a Muhurat for a new downward movement....
I know that markets went very close to the life time highs on the day of Muhurat Trading 3 years back in 2010..... but what happened after that? Nifty almost sold off 1800 points from the 6338 levels to bottom out near 4500.....
On 3rd November this year too, Sensex hit its all time high and since then the markets have been in the southward journey and has already given off 700 points on Sensex...
History repeats itself..... for bulls, hopefully let this be an exception to this rule.
Bulls reduce the speed -
As per my other market related blog (http://hrishikeshprabhavalkar.blogspot.com/), there is a major inter-market divergence between the two major indices i.e. Nifty and Sensex,where Sensex has hit a new life high where as the bears deprived Nifty from doing the same.
Levels of 6100 9on closing basis) and 6000 are very very crucial for Nifty going forward. If markets breaks 6000 and sustains below it, Nifty might be thrown far far away from its recent highs and levels of 5700-5450-5100 will be opened up for bears... As there are momentum indicators diverging at the top on daily and weekly charts, means Bulls reducing the speed and getting tired at the top and a mid term break can be put on this up move when 6000 is broken....
Political connection-
The trigger for the markets in near future is most likely to the Assembly Elections in 5 states, out of which 4 states are considered as the dress rehearsal for the LS elections 2014.....
As per my personal opinion, though as per the Exit / Opinion polls of various news channels there is no force full wave for Mr. Modi (BJP), markets await him to take over and accordingly a win in more than 2 states, it will be an alarming signal for Congress and a welcome one for the markets....
In a nutshell -
To sum it up..... Last hope for bulls will be 6000-6100 levels, if Nifty sustains below 6000 levels can be very bearish for Nifty.... Bears will be completely defeated only above the Life high.... A long should only be initiated after a green candle on the daily charts that too after a proper confirmation as the bears are still in the driving seat for short term....
Lets wait and watch...
Regards
Hrishi
Bulls fire only before Diwali -
Diwali, is an auspicious occasion for everyone, but markets have not followd it many times... It happened a couple of times earlier that the fireworks usually happen before Diwali and the Muhurat Trading day is actually a Muhurat for a new downward movement....
I know that markets went very close to the life time highs on the day of Muhurat Trading 3 years back in 2010..... but what happened after that? Nifty almost sold off 1800 points from the 6338 levels to bottom out near 4500.....
On 3rd November this year too, Sensex hit its all time high and since then the markets have been in the southward journey and has already given off 700 points on Sensex...
History repeats itself..... for bulls, hopefully let this be an exception to this rule.
Bulls reduce the speed -
As per my other market related blog (http://hrishikeshprabhavalkar.blogspot.com/), there is a major inter-market divergence between the two major indices i.e. Nifty and Sensex,where Sensex has hit a new life high where as the bears deprived Nifty from doing the same.
Levels of 6100 9on closing basis) and 6000 are very very crucial for Nifty going forward. If markets breaks 6000 and sustains below it, Nifty might be thrown far far away from its recent highs and levels of 5700-5450-5100 will be opened up for bears... As there are momentum indicators diverging at the top on daily and weekly charts, means Bulls reducing the speed and getting tired at the top and a mid term break can be put on this up move when 6000 is broken....
Political connection-
The trigger for the markets in near future is most likely to the Assembly Elections in 5 states, out of which 4 states are considered as the dress rehearsal for the LS elections 2014.....
As per my personal opinion, though as per the Exit / Opinion polls of various news channels there is no force full wave for Mr. Modi (BJP), markets await him to take over and accordingly a win in more than 2 states, it will be an alarming signal for Congress and a welcome one for the markets....
In a nutshell -
To sum it up..... Last hope for bulls will be 6000-6100 levels, if Nifty sustains below 6000 levels can be very bearish for Nifty.... Bears will be completely defeated only above the Life high.... A long should only be initiated after a green candle on the daily charts that too after a proper confirmation as the bears are still in the driving seat for short term....
Lets wait and watch...
Regards
Hrishi
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