Right after the AAP formed the government in
Delhi, media started following up with the promises they made in their
manifesto, free water, power at 50% cost, etc.....
If they have
to do that for past so many years with the leading political party,
there would not have been any need to form a party like this
Inflation Indexed National Saving Securities –
Cumulative (IINSS-C)
The issue of India’s Inflation Indexed National Savings Securities-Cumulative
(IINSS-C) for retail investors will open for subscription on December 23,
2013 and close on December 31, 2013. The subscription can be closed earlier than
December 31, 2013 with prior notice.
It may be recalled that the Reserve Bank of India, in consultation with
Government of India, on November 29, 2013 announced issuance of Government of
India’s Inflation Indexed National Savings Securities-Cumulative (IINSS-C) for
retail investors.
Interest rate on these securities would be linked to final combined Consumer
Price Index [CPI (Base: 2010=100)]. Interest rate would comprise two parts,
i.e., fixed rate (1.5% per annum) and inflation rate based on CPI and the same
will be compounded in the principal on half-yearly basis and paid at the time of
maturity. The final combined CPI will be used with a lag of three months, i.e.,
final combined CPI for September 2013 will be used as reference CPI for all days
of December 2013.
Early redemptions will be allowed after one year from the date of issue for
senior citizens (i.e., 65 years and above of age) and 3 years for all others,
subject to penalty charges at the rate of 50% of the last coupon payable for
early redemption. Early redemptions, however, can be made only on coupon
dates.
The eligible investors would include individuals, Hindu Undivided Family,
Charitable Institutions registered under section 25 of the Indian Companies Act
and Universities incorporated by Central, State or Provincial Act or declared to
be a university under section 3 of the University Grants Commission Act, 1956 (3
of 1956).
As distribution/ sale of IINSS-C would be through banks, eligible investors
may approach the branches of State Bank of India, Associate Banks, Nationalised
Banks, three private sector banks (viz. HDFC Bank Ltd., ICICI Bank Ltd. and Axis
Bank Ltd.) and Stock Holding Corporation of India Ltd. during working hours.
As per my earlier post(http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1193946081176724201#editor/target=post;postID=8663621023365516905;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=3;src=postname) after BJP gaining a clear cut upper hand in assembly ellections markets reacted positively, however they fell off sharply from the days high and also a Life time high of 6415... currently hovering around 5350 mark.
I think this correction which might get extended till 6300-6200 (maximum) and should provide a chance to go long for traders.
for a bigger time frame a close (preferably monthly) is required above the previous life high of 5357-60.... Once that happens Nifty is set for yet another bull run with some predictable targets ranging from 8k to 10 k over a period of 3-6 years....
Traders should seek corrections for getting a long opportunity rather than trying to catch it right now.... going short for short term can fetch low risk low probability but may be a high return opportunities, so the same should be avoided by conservative traders, aggressive traders should do it once some bearishness is seen on daily or hourly charts.....
Nicely explained the possibility if their is a hung parliment
Courtesy - Times of India
NEW DELHI: Most exit polls are predicting a hung assembly in Delhi.
So, what happens next? If the predictions prove to be true, there are
two possible scenarios. First, the single largest party, which is
expected to be BJP, may form a coalition government with the support of
other parties. If that fails to materialize, Delhi may come under
President's Rule, in which case it will have to vote in fresh elections
within six months from December 17, the last day of the current
assembly's tenure.
Once the figures of the hung assembly are
officially declared, Lt Governor Najeeb Jung will have to invite the
leader of BJP, if it turns out to be the single largest party, to
explore the possibility of forming a government. This will be in keeping
with the Indian precedent of the single largest party being given the
first chance and also the British convention of inviting the Opposition
party when the ruling party has lost majority in the election.
Going by the precedent set by President Narayanan in the 1990s, Jung can
ask Harsh Vardhan if, despite falling short of the half-way mark, he is
"willing and able" to form a stable government.
Given that all
three major parties - Congress, BJP and AAP - have declared that they
would not enter into any post-poll alliances, the chances of President's
Rule seem higher, especially if the largest party is way short of the
majority mark. Since President's Rule cannot last beyond six months, the
fresh election to the Delhi assembly may well be held along with the Lok Sabha election in the summer of 2014.
As per rule 5 of the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi
Act, 1991, the legislative assembly, unless sooner dissolved, shall
continue for five years from the date of appointment for its first
meeting and no longer, and the expiration of the said period of five
years shall operate as dissolution of the Assembly.
In the
current scenario, the assembly was appointed on December 18 in 2008 and
hence a new assembly must be constituted by that date of this year. As
the result comes out on December 8, the political parties will have to
come to a consensus in the next eight days. On failing to do so,
President's Rule will come into effect from the day the assembly stands
dissolved (December 18). However, till December 17 the existing
government can continue as "caretaker government".
Under
President's Rule in Delhi, the Lieutenant Governor becomes full-fledged
executive head of the government and has the power to appoint a group of
advisors who act as 'council of ministers.' Even when the Assembly is
in suspended animation, it will still be open to political parties to
forge a coalition with a majority support in the House.
Experts
look at the scenarios as an 'unfortunate' one for the city as it hurts
the functioning of the government in a significant way. "The functioning
of Delhi government has already suffered in last few months as most of
its staff was put on election duty. In case we have re-polling, it would
mean another few months of minimal work in the government," said Shakti
Sinha, former finance and powers secretary of Delhi government.
Delhi's former chief secretary Rakesh Mehta sees it as a period that
won't see any crucial decision being taken, slowing the pace of the
government significantly. "A hung assembly does not mean 'no' government
-- the constitution provides for a remedy in that case. However,
absence of a formal government can slow down functioning of the
departments. A government is needed for taking drastic and complex
decisions that are crucial for the city," Mehta added.
Experts,
however, also feel a huge voter-turn out usually suggests a decisive
and clear mandate. "If people have come out in such large numbers to
vote they must have given a clear mandate," a senior bureaucrat added.RegardsHrishi
Article 370 is a temporary provision which gives special constitutional status to Jammu and Kashmir.
After
Independence, there was a rise in demand in Jammu and Kashmir for a
'popular plebiscite' to decide if the state should remain part of India,
join Pakistan or become an independent entity. Jawaharlal Nehru, the
then prime minister of India, signed an accord with Sheikh Abdullah who
led the plebiscite movement, and ended the demand.
According to
the pact, the government of India agreed to grant extensive autonomy and
self-government to the state under Article 370.
According to the
article, except for a few subjects like defence and foreign affairs,
the Centre will have to seek state government concurrence for applying
all laws. Regarding laws dealing with property, citizenship and
fundamental rights, the state has an entirely different setup as
compared to the rest of India.
The Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS)
founder Dr. Syama Prasad Mookerjee had opposed the Indian National
Congress's decision to grant Kashmir the special status with its own
flag and Prime Minister. He termed the arrangement under Article 370 as
Balkanisation of India and a three-nation theory of Sheikh Abdullah. BJS
along with Hindu Mahasabha and Ram Rajya Parishad launched a massive
satyagraha against the provision. Mookerjee went to Kashmir in 1953 and
was arrested on May 11 while crossing the border. He died as a political
prisoner on June 23, 1953.
The BJP has been demanding repeal of
the provision, with Modi recently claiming that both Congress and NC had
"misused" Article 370 to deprive the people of the state of their
fundamental rights and promote communalism, separatism and politics of
regional discrimination.
As expected markets are near the judgemental level of 6k and a consistent close below the same ca open further downside in Nifty....
5970 is a level to watch out for.....
However, if it is believed that markets discounts everything in advance, are they discounting Election results which are to be announced in the first week of December or is it a downfall on account of withdrawal requests due to upcoming holiday season in the US and economic deficiencies in India....
I think the time is the best medicine... Let's wait and watch....
As discussed, no longs should be initiated for delevery trades unless there is either a positive close or a trigger on Daily charts ....
Diwali, is an auspicious occasion for everyone, but markets have not followd it many times... It happened a couple of times earlier that the fireworks usually happen before Diwali and the Muhurat Trading day is actually a Muhurat for a new downward movement....
I know that markets went very close to the life time highs on the day of Muhurat Trading 3 years back in 2010..... but what happened after that? Nifty almost sold off 1800 points from the 6338 levels to bottom out near 4500.....
On 3rd November this year too, Sensex hit its all time high and since then the markets have been in the southward journey and has already given off 700 points on Sensex...
History repeats itself..... for bulls, hopefully let this be an exception to this rule.
Bulls reduce the speed -
As per my other market related blog (http://hrishikeshprabhavalkar.blogspot.com/), there is a major inter-market divergence between the two major indices i.e. Nifty and Sensex,where Sensex has hit a new life high where as the bears deprived Nifty from doing the same.
Levels of 6100 9on closing basis) and 6000 are very very crucial for Nifty going forward. If markets breaks 6000 and sustains below it, Nifty might be thrown far far away from its recent highs and levels of 5700-5450-5100 will be opened up for bears... As there are momentum indicators diverging at the top on daily and weekly charts, means Bulls reducing the speed and getting tired at the top and a mid term break can be put on this up move when 6000 is broken....
Political connection-
The trigger for the markets in near future is most likely to the Assembly Elections in 5 states, out of which 4 states are considered as the dress rehearsal for the LS elections 2014.....
As per my personal opinion, though as per the Exit / Opinion polls of various news channels there is no force full wave for Mr. Modi (BJP), markets await him to take over and accordingly a win in more than 2 states, it will be an alarming signal for Congress and a welcome one for the markets....
In a nutshell -
To sum it up..... Last hope for bulls will be 6000-6100 levels, if
Nifty sustains below 6000 levels can be very bearish for Nifty.... Bears
will be completely defeated only above the Life high.... A long should only be initiated after a green candle on the daily charts that too after a proper confirmation as the bears are still in the driving seat for short term....
It was not too long ago when the economy of Cyprus flirted with the danger of going 'bankrupt'! Despite being barely a US$ 23 bn economy, the possibility of sovereign bankruptcy sent shivers down global markets. Imagine if that were to happen with a US$ 15.6 trillion economy! The largest and most powerful in the world! Yes, we are indeed referring to the US and its abysmal state of affairs.
Now consider the statistics. Cyprus had fiscal deficit of 4.9% and bank assets comprised 716% of its GDP in 2012. The US had fiscal deficit of 7% and bank assets comprised nearly 170% of its GDP in 2012 (including off balance sheet items). In fact the top 6 banks in the US alone cornered assets valued at 93% of its GDP. The risk of debt default and collapse of the banking system in the US is therefore hardly worth neglecting.
But that is exactly what the Obama government has been doing so far. Infatuated to the US Fed's money printing policies, the government kept ignoring the warnings of debt ceiling. The debt ceiling limit of US$ 16.699 trillion was breached in May 2013 itself. However, the Treasury chose to adopt extraordinary measures to keep paying its bills. Until the US government finally pulled down the shutters this week, for the first time in 17 years. To get out of this situation, the US government will have to make drastic cut in expenditure or raise taxes or both. In the worst case, it will have to default on debt obligations, which could also lead to a Cyprus-like sovereign crisis. The downside of being the largest economy in the world is that a Cyprus-like bailout will be very difficult for the US to come through.
Thus whether or not the US does a 'Cyprus', the US' debt ceiling is itself an alarm bell for the world economy. Traditionally the US has been able to borrow cheap in the international markets. But a default could damage confidence and drive up the cost of borrowing for Americans. The ripple effect could create a chaotic situation in the international debt market as well.
Investors therefore need to make not just their stocks and gold but also their debt investments with extreme caution. The word 'impossible' can no longer be associated to the risks in global and domestic economy.
Do you think the US will do a Cyprus and ask for a bailout? Let us know your comments or post them on ourFacebook page / Google+ page
How will the decisions of the US government affect Indian stock markets? We know it is questions like these that concern you these days. And your trusted source for views and opinions, The 5 Minute WrapUp, too has unfortunately not helped by staying silent on such questions. We understand that, in addition to broad views on global stock markets, you might also be looking forward to our views on few unexpected movement in stocks. And that is why we are taking steps to make The 5 Minute WrapUp more relevant to you. Watch this space for more details in the coming weeks!
The US government has shutdown since its leaders were unable to
reach an agreement on the broader fiscal policy. This has not really unnerved
the Indian investors as evidenced by the Indian share markets which have
continued to rally since the shutdown. But if the shutdown persists, there
may be reason for Indian investors to cheer more. At least this is what an
article in the Wall Street Journal is saying. The reason for this is the Fed's
QE policy. If the US shutdown gets prolonged, then the US Fed may find it
difficult to taper off its QE plan. In that event, the flood of cheap money that
has invaded our markets would continue for the time being. This means that
our capital markets as well as our currency may find some sort of a support.
If we recall that when the US Fed had just hinted on a possible taper
off, both the markets as well as the Rupee had come crashing down. Therefore any delay or
postponement of the actual taper off is something that would provide relief to
investors. However, the question is not whether the US government continues its
impasse or whether the QE is prolonged or tapered off. The question is, why are
our markets addicted to the money flood like to a drug? Why do we need an
outside drug to provide stability to our currency and markets? Why is the
economy itself unable to provide the same stability? The answer to this lies
with the government who seems to be more interested in winning the next
elections. Rather than do some actual work to make our economy stronger and th
us more stable.
Everyone in Financial Markets is waiting to understand the depth of US shutdown...
Following is a nice article from USATODAY.com
WASHINGTON — It's been 17 years since the federal government last faced a partial shutdown because Congress and the president couldn't agree on a spending bill. A lot has changed in that time, leaving federal employees, citizens and even government decision-makers confused about what a shutdown would mean.
Every shutdown is different. The politics that cause them are different. Because of technology and structural overhauls, the way the government functions has changed since 1996. Much of what will happen is unknown.
Here's what we do know about Tuesday's looming shutdown:
THE BASICS
1. What causes a shutdown? Under the Constitution, Congress must pass laws to spend money. If Congress can't agree on a spending bill — or if, in the case of the Clinton-era shutdowns, the president vetoes it — the government does not have the legal authority to spend money.
2. What's a continuing resolution? Congress used to spend money by passing a budget first, then 12 separate appropriations bills. That process has broken down, and Congress uses a stopgap continuing resolution, or CR, that maintains spending at current levels for all or part of the year.
3. Why can't Congress agree? The Republican-controlled House has passed a spending bill that maintains spending levels but does not provide funding to implement the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare. The Democratic Senate insists that the program be fully funded and that Congress pass what they call a "clean" CR.
4. What is a "clean" CR?A continuing resolution without policy changes.
5. Why is this happening now? The government runs on a fiscal year from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30. Shutdowns can happen at other times of the year when Congress passes a partial-year spending bill.
6. Could government agencies ignore the shutdown? Under a federal law known as the Anti-Deficiency Act, it can be a felony to spend taxpayer money without an appropriation from Congress.
7. When would a shutdown begin? When the fiscal year ends at midnight Monday. Most federal workers would report to work Tuesday, but unless they're deemed "essential," they would work no more than four hours on shutdown-related activities before being furloughed.
8. When would the shutdown end? Immediately after the president signs a spending bill. As a practical matter, it could be noon the following day before most government offices that were shut down would reopen their doors.
10. How long do shutdowns usually last? Most last no more than three days. Some last less than a day.
11. When was the longest shutdown in history? The longest was also the most recent: from Dec. 16, 1995, through Jan. 5, 1996. That's 21 days.
12. Would this shutdown be different from those in the 1990s? Yes. When the 1995 shutdown started, Congress had already passed three of 13 appropriations bills. (They funded military construction, agriculture, and energy and water projects.) Also, more government services are automated.
THE DEBT LIMIT
13. What's the difference between a shutdown and a debt crisis? In a shutdown, the government lacks the legal authority to spend money on non-essential services. In a debt crisis, the government is mandated to spend money — but doesn't have the legal authority to borrow the money to spend it.
14. Are the two related? Only by timing, which is somewhat coincidental.
15. When will the government run out of borrowing authority? Secretary of the Treasury Jacob Lew says it could come as soon as Oct. 17.
16. Has the United States ever defaulted on its debt before? No.
17. If the nation hits the debt limit, will government shut down? That's a big unknown question. The Treasury Department has said the most likely scenario is that it would delay payments, paying only those bills it can afford, using daily tax revenue.
GOVERNMENT SERVICES
18. Will I still get my mail? Yes. The U.S. Postal Service functions as an independent business unit.
19. Can I get a passport? Maybe, but hurry. The Department of State says it has some funds outside the annual congressional appropriation. "Consular operations domestically and overseas will remain 100% operational as long as there are sufficient fees to support operations," the department says.
20. Can I visit national parks? No. The National Park Service says day visitors will be told to leave immediately, and entrances will be closed.
21. What about campers already in the parks? They will be given two days to leave.
22. Will Washington museums be open? The Smithsonian, the National Zoo and the Holocaust Museum would all be closed. Private museums, such as the Newseum, the Spy Museum and Mount Vernon, would remain open. Rule of thumb: If it's usually free, it's probably closed.
23. What about the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts? The Kennedy Center does receive an annual appropriation from Congress, but also runs on ticket revenue and endowment funds. The center expects to stay open through a shutdown.
24. What about the National Archives?All archives and most presidential libraries will be closed, unless they're operated by a private foundation — as all pre-Herbert Hoover presidential museums are. The Federal Records Center Program, which supports other agencies, would continue to operate because it uses a revolving fund.
25. Will the District of Columbia shut down? The district does not have complete autonomy and relies on an appropriation from Congress to operate. So during the shutdowns in the 1990s, trash went uncollected, and many city departments closed. In a departure from past shutdowns, Mayor Vincent Gray has informed the Office of Management and Budget that he has deemed all city employees "essential." The district's own attorney general has declared the mayor's plan illegal.
28. Will the government still release economic data? Probably. The weekly unemployment claims number would still come out, and the September jobs report, due out Friday, probably will, too. The Department of Commerce reasons that some of its data is so economically sensitive that delaying it risks that it will be leaked.
30. Will disaster response be affected? No. However, all "non-disaster" grants — such as state and local preparedness programs — would be postponed, the Department of Homeland Security says.
31. Will e-Verify be affected? Yes. The government system to allow companies to voluntarily check the legal work status of its employees would be shut down.
32. Would a shutdown put the brakes on implementing the Affordable Care Act, or "Obamacare?" No. The state-run exchanges for the uninsured would open as scheduled Tuesday. "The marketplaces will be open on Tuesday, no matter what, even if there is a government shutdown," President Obama said Friday.
34. Would seniors continue to get Social Security benefits? Yes. Social Security is a mandatory spending program, and the people who send those checks would continue to work under a legal doctrine called "necessary implication."
35. Can I apply for Social Security benefits, appeal a denial of benefits, change my address or sign up for direct deposit?Yes.
36. Can I get a new or replacement Social Security card, benefit verification statement or earnings record correction?No.
37. Would the government continue to pay unemployment benefits? Yes. The Employment and Training Administration "will continue to provide essential functions, as occurred during the shutdown of 1995," according to the Department of Labor contingency plan.
38. Will I be able to get food stamps? Yes. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is funded through the Recovery Act and from funds that don't expire for another year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says.
40. And the federal school lunch program? Schools are reimbursed for these costs on a monthly basis and are allowed to carry over funds from the previous fiscal year. The USDA expects most schools will be able to continue providing meals through October.
41. What will happen to veterans receiving compensation for service- or combat-related wounds and injuries? The Department of Veterans Affairs said if the shutdown continues into late October, it will run out of money for compensation and pension checks to more than 3.6 million veterans who rely on the money to support themselves.
42. Can I still get a federally backed loan? Maybe not. "Federal loans for rural communities, small business owners, families buying a home will be frozen," President Obama said Friday.
43. Does that mean I can't get an FHA mortgage? No. The Federal Housing Administration says it "will endorse new loans under current multi-year appropriation authority in order to support the health and stability of the U.S. mortgage market."
44. Does that mean I can't get a VA mortgage? No. The Department of Veterans Affairs says loans are funded via user fees and should continue. However, during the last shutdown, "loan Guaranty certificates of eligibility and certificates of reasonable value were delayed."
52. Why do some federal employees continue to work during a shutdown?The law — or at least, the Justice Department's interpretation of it — contains exemptions for several classes of employees: The biggest exemption is for employees necessary to protect public health, safety or property. But property could include government data, ongoing research experiments or other intangibles. Political appointees are exempt because they cannot be placed on leave by law. Employees necessary for the president to carry out his constitutional responsibilities are exempt. Finally, employees whose salaries are paid from sources outside an annual spending bill can still get paid and report to work.
54. Would the president be paid during a shutdown? Yes. The president's $400,000 salary is mandatory spending. If furloughs begin to affect the government's ability to process payroll, his paycheck could be delayed.
55. What about White House staff? Some high-ranking presidential appointees are exempt from the Annual and Sick Leave Act of 1951, which means they can essentially be made to work unpaid overtime. Also, any employee necessary for the president to carry out his constitutional duties would be exempt.
56. And the president's personal aides? The White House has 90 staffers who work in the residence. During a shutdown, 15 of them would stay on the job.
57. Would Congress continue to be paid during a shutdown? Yes. The 27th Amendment to the Constitution, ratified in 1992, holds that "No law, varying the compensation for the services of the Senators and Representatives, shall take effect, until an election of representatives shall have intervened." Intended to prevent Congress from voting itself a raise, it also protects members from a pay cut.
58. What about congressional staff? Like other federal employees, they would be deemed essential or non-essential. Essential staff would include those necessary to carry out constitutional responsibilities, such as the parliamentarians, or for protection of members, such as the sergeants-at-arms. Staff of the appropriations committees may also be needed to write the law that would end the shutdown.
59. Would active-duty military be furloughed? No. All active-duty military are essential and should report as scheduled Tuesday, the Department of Defense said Friday.
61. Would active-duty military be paid during a shutdown? If a shutdown lasts longer than a week, the Pentagon might not be able to process its payroll in time for the Oct. 15 paychecks, Defense Department Comptroller Robert Hale said Friday. The House passed a separate bill early Sunday that would appropriate money for active-duty and reserve paychecks regardless of the shutdown — and also pay for support services to make sure they get paid. That bill passed the House 422-0, but still must go to the Senate.
62. Could federal employees simply volunteer their services? No. A 19th-century federal law forbids volunteers because the government doesn't want them filing claims for back pay after the shutdown is over, according to a legal analysis by Washington attorney Raymond Natter.
63. Would federal employees get paid retroactively, even if they didn't work?Maybe. Congress granted retroactive pay to furloughed workers after the shutdowns of the mid-1990s, but that wouldn't necessarily happen again. "I believe this time is going to be much different. This is a much different Congress than the 1995 Congress," said Cox, federal employee union president. "I'm not sure that they'd even want to go back and pay the people who worked."
THE LONG TERM
64. How much money would a shutdown save taxpayers? Most likely, it wouldn't. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says shutdowns cost money in terms of contingency planning, lost user fees and back pay. A government estimate after the shutdown in 1995-96 estimated its cost at $1.4 billion.
65. What effect would a shutdown have on the economy? Economists say even a short shutdown — of three or four days — would begin to shave decimal points off economic growth. A sustained shutdown of three or four weeks "would do significant economic damage," economist Mark Zandi told USA TODAY.
66. What about the stock market? The Standard & Poor's 500 fell 3.7% during the 1995-96 government shutdown, according to S&P Capital IQ. Stocks quickly rebounded after the government got back to work, rising 10.5% the month after the shutdown ended.
Contributing: Adam Shell, Tim Mullaney in New York, Gregg Zoroya in McLean, Va., Raju Chebium of Gannett News Service; Rick Maze and Andrew Tilghman of Military Times; Surae Chinn of WUSA-TV in Washington; and the Associated Press.
Pleae find below a nice development in Indian Politics...
Courtesy - NDTV
New Delhi: The Supreme Court has directed the Election Commission to provide a button on voting machines to allow voters to reject all candidates contesting an election in a constituency.
Election commission sources said this will be done starting with the next set of assembly elections this year.
Here are the top 10 developments:
The court has also asked the Election Commission to publicise this widely so that voters know that they will now have a "none of the above" option on electronic voting machines or EVMs.
The court observed that negative voting would lead to systemic change in elections and political parties will be forced to project clean candidates. It also held that this will "foster purity and vibrancy in elections."
Voters in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram - where Assembly elections are due in November - will have the right to reject option.
Right now, if a voter goes to a polling booth and does not want to vote for any candidate, he can sign a register and come out. That violates the right of secret ballot.
There is no provision yet to count the "rejection" votes and so these will not impact the result of the election. Activists have proposed that if more than 50 per cent of those who vote reject all candidates, there should be a re-election in that constituency.
The court upheld the argument of petitioner, the People's Union for Civil Liberties, an NGO, that a voter has the right to record disapproval of all candidates listed.
The Election Commission had supported this stand. It had recommended that the government amend rules to include this, but that had not been done.
The Centre had opposed the proposal. It contended that an election is meant to elect and not to reject. It also argued that including a rejection button will confuse voters and will not serve any purpose.
Gandhian activist Anna Hazare had campaigned extensively for poll reforms that would include both the right to reject and the right to recall an elected representative if the electorate is dissatisfied with his or her performance.
Political parties have not made their stand on right to reject clear yet. The BJP had asked for a detailed debate. The Left had sought clarity on what purpose it hoped to serve.
Please find below the view of my friend... Mr. Yogesh Kulkarni.... on RBI Policy in a leading Marathi daily, Maharashtra Times...
Thanks Yogesh...
योगेश कुलकर्णी, मुंबई
डॉ. रघुराम राजन यांनी रिझर्व्ह बँकेच्या गव्हर्नरपदाची सूत्रे स्वीकारल्यावर शुक्रवारी मॉनेटरी पॉलिसीचा पहिला आढावा घेतला. अमेरिकेच्या 'फेड'ची बैठकही त्याआधी नुकतीच झाली होती. त्यामुळे रिझर्व्ह बँकेचे धोरण आणि राजन यांनी भूमिका जाणून घेण्याकडे सर्वांचे लक्ष लागले होते. त्याचे तज्ज्ञांनी केलेले विश्लेषण.
अमेरिकन फेड बँकेने बाजारातील पैसा काढून न घेता जागतिक अर्थव्यवस्थेला सुखद धक्का दिला. मात्र, रिझर्व्ह बँकेने मॉनिटरी पॉलिसीचा आढावा घेताना व्याजदरात वाढ करून अनपेक्षित धक्का दिला.
डॉ. रघुराम राजन आत्तापर्यंत महागाईच्या दराला नियंत्रित करणाऱ्या धोरणाचे पुरस्कर्ते राहिले आहेत. त्यांचे हे विचार मॉनिटरी पॉलिसीतून अधिक स्पष्ट झाले. मात्र, इतक्या लवकर महागाईविरोधी कडक पावले उचलली जातील, याची कल्पना नव्हती.
सन २००८ च्या मंदीतून अजूनही अमेरिका आणि अन्य युरोपीय देश बाहेर आलेले नाहीत. पण, अमेरिकन फेडरल रिझर्व्हने बाजारातील पैसा काढून घेण्याचे सूतोवाच २२ मे रोजी करून संभ्रम निर्माण केला. फेडच्या नुकत्याच झालेल्या बैठकीत सावध पवित्रा घेत, अमेरिकन सेंट्रल बँकेने पैसा काढून घेण्याच्या निर्णयाबाबत चाल-ढकल केली. भारतसह सर्वच अर्थव्यवस्थांनी या निर्णयाचे स्वागत केले. परंतु, फेड आज ना उद्या पैसा काढून घेईल, हे नक्की. भारतीय बाजारावर किंवा अर्थव्यवस्थेवर याचे फारसे चांगले परिणाम होणार नाहीत.
रिझर्व्ह बँकेच्या भूमिकेवर फेडच्या धोरणाचा प्रभाव दिसून येतो. अर्थव्यवस्थेला पूरक अशी धोरणे जाहीर करून राजन यांनी आश्वासक कारकिर्दीला सुरुवात तर केली आहे, पण ती किती विश्वासार्ह आहे, ते येत्या काळात स्पष्ट होईल.
रिझर्व्ह बँकेने व्याजदरात वाढ केली म्हणून बँका व्याजदर वाढवतील का, हा मुद्दा महत्त्वाचा आहे. व्याजदरात वाढ वा घट करणे, हे बँका कुठल्या दराने बाजारातून वा रिझर्व्ह बँकेकडून पैसा उचलतात आणि बँकांकडून कर्जे घ्यायला किती मागणी आहे, यावर ठरते. सध्या पैशाची आवक कमी असली तरी बँकांकडून कर्जे घ्यावे, अशी मानसिकता कमी प्रमाणात आहेत. ग्राहकांना आकर्षित करण्यासाठी बचत व ठेवींवरचे दर वाढवले तर कर्जावरील दरही वाढतील. तसे पाहता पावता टक्का दरवाढ किरकोळ आहे, पण सध्याची आर्थिक स्थिती पाहता बँका या वाढीचा कसा अर्थ लावतील, हे कळायला वेळ लागेल.
रिझर्व्ह बँकेचे धोरण आश्वासक यासाठी आहे की, एमएसएफ, सीआरआर डेली लिमिटमध्ये घट केल्याने बँकांकडे पैशांचा पुरवठा राहील आणि त्यांना कर्जावरील व्याजदर वाढवावे लागणार नाही. पैशाची, कर्जाची एकूणच मागणी कमी असल्याने बँकांवरती फारसा दबाव येणार नाही, अशी रिझर्व्ह बँकेची भूमिका आहे.
घसरत चाललेला आर्थिक विकास दर, वाढती महागाई यामध्ये रिझर्व्ह बँकेने वाढती महागाई कमी करण्याच्या दृष्टिकोनातून व्याजदरात वाढ केली, जेणे करून पैशाचा अवास्तव पुरवठा कमी होईल. मात्र, या व्याजदरवाढीचा परिणाम महागाईचा दर कमी होण्यास झाला तर चांगलेच आहे. परंतु, व्याजदरवाढीची कास धरून बँकांनी व्याजदर वाढवले तर त्यांचा फटका 'ईएमआय'धारकांना बसेलच. महागाईचा दर व विकासदर यामध्ये समतोल साधणे, अत्यंत कठीण आहे. रिझर्व्ह बँक व सरकार यांनी या बाबतीत एकत्र काम करणे गरजेचे आहे.
रिझर्व्ह बँकेला महागाई रोखण्यात आतापर्यंत पूर्णतः किंवा विश्वसनीय यश फार वेळा मिळाले नाही. मात्र, महागाई रोखण्याच्या प्रयत्नात व्याजदर वाढवणे, ही नित्याची बाब झाली. महागाई कमी झाली, पण व्याजदरही वाढले तर त्याचा काहीच फायदा होत नागी. महागाई व जीडीपी संलग्न असतात. एका दरवाढीचा वा घटण्याचा दुसऱ्यावर परिणाम होत असतो.
महागाई नियंत्रणाबरोबरच, जीडीपी दर कसा वाढेल, याची दखल घेणे स्वागतार्ह आहे. मात्र, सद्यस्थिती तेवढी विश्वसनीय नाही. जीडीपी ४.७ टक्के, औद्योगिक विकासदर २ टक्के, महागाईचा दर ६ टक्के हे भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्थेचे सध्याचे चित्र गुंतवणुकीसाठी नक्कीच विश्वसनीय नाही.
रिझर्व्ह बँकेचा दृष्टिकोन योग्य असला तरी बँकांची आणि सरकारी धोरणांची त्यांना कितपत साथ मिळेल, यावर मॉनेटरी पॉलिसीची विश्वासार्हता ठरते. बँकांनी व्याजदरात वाढ न करता महागाई कमी होण्याची वाट पाहिली तर रिझर्व्ह बँकेच्या मॉनेटरी पॉलिसीची विश्वासार्हता टिकेल. त्यामुळे या पॉलिसीचा निष्कर्ष इतक्यातच लावता येणार नाही. शेअर बाजाराने लगेचच प्रतिक्रिया दिली असली तरी अर्थव्यवस्था नेहमीच संयमाने प्रतिक्रिया देते. तूर्तास, व्याजदर वाढवणे किंवा स्थिर ठेवणे हे त्या त्या बँकेचा पैशाचा पुरवठा व मागणी यावर अवलंबून असेल.
(लेखक डीएचएफएल समूहामध्ये कॉर्पोरेट स्ट्रॅटेजी ग्रूपमध्ये आहेत व लेखातील मते वैयक्तिक आहेत) Regards Hrishi
